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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 24 games
58%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 12 games
42%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 39 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 36 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 36 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 408 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
448 picks · 582 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 527 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
417 picks · 230 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 702 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
404 picks · 466 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 594 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 933 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:25
Gaimin Gladiators 52%AVULUS 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerWatson
46% · 178 games49% · 338 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritQuinn
50% · 165 games60% · 23 games
BloodseekerSmiling Knight
Bloodseeker
Phoenix
PhoenixAce
49% · 339 games56% · 92 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Tusk
TusktOfu
46% · 259 games46% · 313 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Lich
LichSeleri
51% · 104 games53% · 279 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct18:37
Gaimin Gladiators 50%AVULUS 50%
The model gave 50% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomAce
45% · 151 game59% · 252 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
39% · 262 games49% · 250 games
Ember SpiritStormstormer
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
45% · 95 games61% · 106 games
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
47% · 247 games56% · 190 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Batrider
BatridertOfu
44% · 362 games57% · 319 games
LionEkki
Lion
Game 3prediction correct12:32
Gaimin Gladiators 49%AVULUS 51%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWatson
49% · 397 games57% · 160 games
BristlebackSmiling Knight
Bristleback
Doom
DoomAce
44% · 283 games56% · 166 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Mirana
MiranatOfu
49% · 167 games52% · 462 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerQuinn
46% · 237 games51% · 460 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
48% · 324 games48% · 160 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3