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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 6 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NothingToSay · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 4 games
75%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
pLAnet · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 4 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
shiro · 3 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 29 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 19 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 18 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 16 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pyw · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 409 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
451 picks · 580 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 525 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
416 picks · 228 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
414 picks · 698 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
404 picks · 462 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 594 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 934 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:23
Team Tidebound 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 23:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
50% · 88 games48% · 113 games
Svenlou
Sven
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFaith_bian
45% · 116 games55% · 145 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Zeus
ZeusNothingToSay
40% · 42 games65% · 27 games
ViperXm
Viper
Pugna
PugnapLAnet
43% · 88 games58% · 64 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamany`
54% · 19 games25% · 4 games
WarlockPoloson
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct17:38
Team Tidebound 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunashiro
52% · 224 games49% · 179 games
Lifestealerlou
Lifestealer
Sand King
Sand KingFaith_bian
46% · 147 games47% · 313 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
50% · 341 game48% · 288 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
58% · 97 games45% · 163 games
PugnaPoloson
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
52% · 269 games53% · 135 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 52%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2