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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 1:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
x5 Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 11 games
18%
Tiny
Tinysignature
payk · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Accel · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
50%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 4 games
25%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%

x5 Gaming

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hermit · 7 games
57%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Pamplona · 6 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
555k · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555k · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Pamplona · 2 games
100%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
636 picks · 432 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
550 picks · 308 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
494 picks · 591 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
471 picks · 404 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
435 picks · 641 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 1028 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
347 picks · 306 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 543 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Estar Backs 62%x5 Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 62%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1