ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TGthe goal of all life is deathloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerksignature
BoBoKa · 23 games
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 20 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 17 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 17 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 14 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 14 games
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
the goal of all life is death
Tinyoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Puckoften banned
GaN- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
484 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
454 picks · 575 bans
Batrider
422 picks · 526 bans
Lion
414 picks · 226 bans
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 690 bans
Phoenix
404 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 594 bans
Beastmaster
359 picks · 932 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:26
Yakult Brothers 75%the goal of all life is death 25%
The model gave 75% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidAme
Earth SpiritGaN-
EarthshakerEmo
Dawnbreakerzeal
ZeusBoBoKa
Shadow Demon天命
Game 2prediction correct33:5
Yakult Brothers 75%the goal of all life is death 25%
The model gave 75% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAme
TinyGaN-
Earth SpiritEmo
Enigmazeal
Pugna天命
MagnusBoBoKa
Game 3prediction correct
Yakult Brothers 90%the goal of all life is death 10%
The model gave 90% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 90%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3