ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yoru Ryodanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 18 games
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 16 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 11 games
Yoru Ryodan
Lion
Ezekiel · 3 games
Grimstroke
Ezekiel · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Iooften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
483 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
452 picks · 571 bans
Batrider
422 picks · 524 bans
Lion
414 picks · 225 bans
Gyrocopter
411 picks · 686 bans
Phoenix
404 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 594 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 925 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:6
Shopify Rebellion 83%Yoru Ryodan 17%
The model gave 83% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 16:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterTimado
DawnbreakerEzekiel
Beastmastermangekyou
PuckYopaj
ClockwerkSkem
MorphlingHellscream
Game 2prediction correct37:9
Shopify Rebellion 84%Yoru Ryodan 16%
The model gave 84% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 16:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmothermangekyou
ClockwerkEzekiel
LifestealerTimado
MagnusYopaj
HuskarHellscream
LichSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 96%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2