ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chimera Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Lion
Delight · 1 game
Chimera Esports
Muertasignature
OneJey · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 11 games
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 11 games
Pugnasignature
Panto · 10 games
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Lorenof · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
483 picks · 406 bans
Clockwerk
448 picks · 564 bans
Batrider
419 picks · 518 bans
Lion
411 picks · 221 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 678 bans
Phoenix
402 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 593 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 75%
Hero pool strength61% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total88% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:33
Winter Bear 27%Chimera Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow DemonDelight
Nature's ProphetTA2000
49% · 84 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
50% · 22 games
Night StalkerDaxak
38% · 109 games
HoodwinkPanto
45% · 7 games
Bounty HunterOneJey
Game 2prediction correct11:24
Winter Bear 25%Chimera Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nyx AssassinDelight
MeepoTA2000
34% · 28 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
43% · 3 games
UndyingDaxak
67% · 29 games
ChenPanto
78% · 5 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 88%
Series resultChimera Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2