ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sadboysloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yoru Ryodanwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sadboys
No games played over 6 months.
Yoru Ryodan
Lion
Ezekiel · 3 games
Grimstroke
Ezekiel · 1 game
Iooften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
483 picks · 406 bans
Clockwerk
448 picks · 564 bans
Batrider
419 picks · 518 bans
Lion
411 picks · 221 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 678 bans
Phoenix
402 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 593 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Sadboys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Sadboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:38
Sadboys 56%Yoru Ryodan 44%
The model gave 56% on Sadboys — the game was taken by Yoru Ryodan in 31:32.
Game 2prediction missed20:30
Sadboys 56%Yoru Ryodan 44%
The model gave 56% on Sadboys — the game was taken by Yoru Ryodan in 23:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteSadboys · 56%
Series resultYoru Ryodan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2