European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs predictionLLFGwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TT Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LFG
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nizam` · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 1 game
Ogre Magi
flacko · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
flacko · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Astral · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 1 game
TT Team
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
483 picks · 405 bans
Clockwerk
447 picks · 563 bans
Batrider
418 picks · 518 bans
Lion
411 picks · 221 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 677 bans
Phoenix
401 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 593 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% LFG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% LFG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:19
LFG 55%TT Team 45%
The model gave 55% on LFG — the game was taken by LFG in 43:25.
Game 2prediction correct38:12
LFG 55%TT Team 45%
The model gave 55% on LFG — the game was taken by LFG in 36:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFG · 55%
Series resultLFG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2