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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 31 game
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
33 · 28 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 27 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Nightfall · 19 games
79%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 404 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 562 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 518 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 220 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 672 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
397 picks · 445 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 592 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 917 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 42%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total90% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:39
Tundra Esports 76%Team Secret 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 57:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
41% · 287 games57% · 42 games
LycanMikSa`
Lycan
Magnus
Magnusdyrachyo
52% · 160 games55% · 82 games
SlarkParker
Slark
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
46% · 88 games53% · 188 games
Invokerxn丶e
Invoker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinSaksa
50% · 80 games55% · 121 game
Elder TitanPuppey
Elder Titan
Lich
LichWhitemon
47% · 77 games49% · 259 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Game 2prediction missed24:38
Tundra Esports 75%Team Secret 25%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbzm
53% · 51 game44% · 21 game
Phantom AssassinParker
Phantom Assassin
Lycan
Lycan33
54% · 40 games47% · 67 games
Invokerxn丶e
Invoker
Spectre
Spectredyrachyo
46% · 34 games55% · 49 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Riki
RikiSaksa
59% · 9 games53% · 75 games
MuertaThiolicor
Muerta
Lich
LichWhitemon
46% · 102 games47% · 24 games
Elder TitanPuppey
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct24:18
Tundra Esports 76%Team Secret 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
60% · 152 games44% · 440 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
52% · 233 games53% · 319 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
52% · 272 games51% · 103 games
TidehunterMikSa`
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
42% · 293 games51% · 176 games
Elder TitanPuppey
Elder Titan
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
47% · 379 games49% · 291 game
MuertaThiolicor
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 90%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3