The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gior Dota Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 11 games
Jakiro
Accel · 9 games
Tiny
payk · 9 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 4 games
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
Gior Dota Team
Axeoften banned
FeelinG · 1 game
Bane
FeelinG · 1 game
Dark Willow
Asao · 1 game
Hoodwink
Asao · 1 game
Lion
Asao · 1 game
Marsoften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Ringmaster
Asao · 1 game
Silencer
Cara · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
634 picks · 431 bans
Rubick
549 picks · 307 bans
Phoenix
492 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 401 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 638 bans
Puck
357 picks · 1017 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 537 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:38
Estar Backs 68%Gior Dota Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Gior Dota Team in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosParker
BaneFeelinG
Storm SpiritS1RENM
AxebsK7-
VenomancerAccel
HoodwinkMichael
Game 2prediction correct29:17
Estar Backs 69%Gior Dota Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyParker
TuskFeelinG
DoombsK7-
Storm SpiritS1RENM
TechiesMichael
LichAccel
Game 3prediction correct30:17
Estar Backs 69%Gior Dota Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterParker
PhoenixFeelinG
Storm SpiritS1RENM
TidehunterbsK7-
LionMichael
BaneAccel
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 84%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3