ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEgoistsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Lion
Delight · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 1 game
Egoists
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
482 picks · 404 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 563 bans
Batrider
416 picks · 518 bans
Lion
409 picks · 218 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 670 bans
Phoenix
395 picks · 445 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 592 bans
Beastmaster
357 picks · 915 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Egoists
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:13
Winter Bear 60%Egoists 40%
The model gave 60% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 25:50.
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Winter Bear 60%Egoists 40%
The model gave 60% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 21:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 60%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2