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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 38 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 36 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 36 games
61%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 24 games
71%

Night Pulse

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
JANTER · 10 games
30%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
JANTER · 9 games
44%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 401 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 560 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
412 picks · 516 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 217 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 664 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
394 picks · 443 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 591 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 912 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength61% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total70% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:45
AVULUS 62%Night Pulse 38%
The model gave 62% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 51:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
59% · 41 game56% · 20 games
SpectreKami
Spectre
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
51% · 106 games54% · 76 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Viper
ViperStormstormer
56% · 52 games38% · 124 games
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
41% · 34 games51% · 12 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Lich
LichSoNNeikO
53% · 89 games50% · 90 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed15:33
AVULUS 64%Night Pulse 36%
The model gave 64% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
44% · 308 games46% · 305 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
50% · 283 games50% · 150 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
61% · 105 games46% · 331 game
TimbersawWorick
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
49% · 91 game53% · 100 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Lion
LionEkki
55% · 215 games46% · 116 games
LichKidaro
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 70%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2