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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
46%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 22 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 21 game
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 16 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 14 games
57%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 17 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 15 games
73%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 15 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
lupsione · 14 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 13 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 12 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 401 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 560 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
411 picks · 515 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
405 picks · 216 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 661 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
393 picks · 440 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 590 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 911 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:41
One Move 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightWoE
52% · 65 games52% · 180 games
LunaV-Tune
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
56% · 123 games52% · 158 games
Monkey Kingerase
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
46% · 151 game49% · 59 games
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Batrider
Batridernot me
46% · 316 games53% · 239 games
Lionlupsione
Lion
Lich
Lichso bad
45% · 84 games50% · 103 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct23:23
One Move 43%9Pandas 57%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinWoE
47% · 69 games51% · 131 game
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSSS
46% · 123 games54% · 400 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
46% · 424 games51% · 295 games
Marslaise
Mars
Enchantress
Enchantressso bad
49% · 250 games49% · 66 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonnot me
49% · 363 games56% · 337 games
Lionlupsione
Lion
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 58%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2