ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wolf Warriorsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 21 game
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 21 game
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
Wolf Warriors
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
482 picks · 400 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 560 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 514 bans
Lion
405 picks · 216 bans
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 660 bans
Phoenix
393 picks · 437 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 589 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 909 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:0
Nigma Galaxy 94%Wolf Warriors 6%
The model gave 94% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 12:09.
Game 2prediction correct46:8
Nigma Galaxy 94%Wolf Warriors 6%
The model gave 94% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 15:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 94%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2