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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
the goal of all life is deathloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 28 games
68%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pyw · 20 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xm · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%

the goal of all life is death

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
481 picks · 399 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 557 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 514 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
405 picks · 213 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 657 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
393 picks · 437 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 588 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 905 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:3
Xtreme Gaming 82%the goal of all life is death 18%
The model gave 82% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 25:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
38% · 64 games54% · 172 games
InvokerGaN-
Invoker
Doom
Doomniu
41% · 33 games
Puck
PuckXm
56% · 39 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
44% · 5 games
Pugna
PugnaPoloson
51% · 31 game
Game 2prediction correct29:5
Xtreme Gaming 81%the goal of all life is death 19%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 22:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelou
little data58% · 36 games
HuskarGaN-
Huskar
Sniper
SniperXm
40% · 6 games
Brewmaster
Brewmasterniu
50% · 10 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPyw
54% · 9 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPoloson
27% · 11 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 95%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2