ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 3:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Kukuysloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 22 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 20 games
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 16 games
Team Kukuys
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 8 games
Marci
Palos · 7 games
Queen of Painsignature
Yowe · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
481 picks · 399 bans
Clockwerk
446 picks · 557 bans
Batrider
409 picks · 514 bans
Lion
405 picks · 213 bans
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 657 bans
Phoenix
393 picks · 437 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 588 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 905 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total86% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Talon Esports 72%Team Kukuys 28%
The model gave 72% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageNatsumi
MorphlingAbat
SniperMikoto
Keeper of the LightArmel
LycanWs
PugnaPonyo
LichKuku
ClockwerkJhocam
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Talon Esports 72%Team Kukuys 28%
The model gave 72% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNatsumi
TerrorbladeAbat
DoomWs
PuckArmel
TinyMikoto
Elder TitanPonyo
MuertaJhocam
LichKuku
Game 3prediction missed23:33
Talon Esports 72%Team Kukuys 28%
The model gave 72% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 39:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMikoto
BristlebackAbat
DoomWs
PuckArmel
GyrocopterNatsumi
ClockwerkPonyo
BatriderJhocam
ZeusKuku
Game 4prediction correct18:14
Talon Esports 72%Team Kukuys 28%
The model gave 72% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNatsumi
RazorAbat
TinyMikoto
PuckArmel
TerrorbladeWs
Ogre MagiPonyo
BatriderKuku
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 86%
Series resultTalon Esports 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4