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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Muerta
Muerta
TK · 13 games
23%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
14%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 6 games
17%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
33%

Team Tidebound

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
pLAnet · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 4 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 3 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NothingToSay · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
pLAnet · 3 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
NothingToSay · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 398 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 557 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 513 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
404 picks · 212 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 655 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
392 picks · 437 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 586 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 902 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 69%
Hero pool strength63% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
Spiky Gaming 21%Team Tidebound 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
53% · 210 games54% · 213 games
Alchemistshiro
Alchemist
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerukiyo
53% · 13 games45% · 84 games
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Earthshaker
Bristleback
Bristleback生死
54% · 161 game48% · 245 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTK
57% · 243 games45% · 233 games
MuertapLAnet
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
43% · 250 games48% · 102 games
Lichy`
Lich
Game 2prediction correct16:33
Spiky Gaming 20%Team Tidebound 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 36:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
60% · 108 games43% · 182 games
TerrorbladeFaith_bian
Terrorblade
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
48% · 147 games52% · 155 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Timbersaw
Timbersaw生死
46% · 116 games44% · 116 games
Queen of PainNothingToSay
Queen of Pain
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTK
52% · 154 games52% · 64 games
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
Shadow Shaman
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRedPanda
52% · 65 games53% · 73 games
Ioy`
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 93%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2