ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IEInterlaken Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 19 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 17 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 17 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 14 games
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 13 games
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
Interlaken Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
480 picks · 398 bans
Clockwerk
444 picks · 557 bans
Batrider
408 picks · 513 bans
Lion
404 picks · 212 bans
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 655 bans
Phoenix
392 picks · 437 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 586 bans
Beastmaster
355 picks · 902 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:9
Yakult Brothers 84%Interlaken Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 18:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAme
Magnus冷鸟
Enigmazeal
Storm SpiritEmo
Silencer天命
ClockwerkBoBoKa
Game 2prediction correct24:8
Yakult Brothers 84%Interlaken Esports 16%
The model gave 84% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 19:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerAme
Doom冷鸟
TinyEmo
Terrorbladezeal
EnchantressBoBoKa
Clockwerk天命
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 96%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2