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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Perro Negrowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
PiPi · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
payk · 7 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
80%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 4 games
50%

Perro Negro

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 5 games
80%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 5 games
80%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 5 games
60%
Lich
Lich
Mjz · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 397 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
443 picks · 555 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
408 picks · 510 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
402 picks · 212 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 652 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
390 picks · 436 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 586 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
353 picks · 899 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Looking for Org
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:25
Looking for Org 60%Perro Negro 40%
The model gave 60% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 49:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpayk
50% · 144 games44% · 33 games
Phantom AssassinWits
Phantom Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPiPi
45% · 104 games47% · 175 games
TimbersawOscar
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterVitaly
69% · 39 games46% · 226 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaMatthew
55% · 98 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiYadomi
53% · 49 games
Game 2prediction correct32:14
Looking for Org 60%Perro Negro 40%
The model gave 60% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawPiPi
42% · 82 games47% · 216 games
Templar AssassinWits
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
Bristlebackpayk
50% · 77 games59% · 157 games
BrewmasterOscar
Brewmaster
Beastmaster
BeastmasterVitaly
51% · 102 games52% · 146 games
Ogre MagiMjz
Ogre Magi
Phoenix
PhoenixYadomi
47% · 148 games
Lion
LionMatthew
47% · 110 games
Game 3prediction missed22:31
Looking for Org 59%Perro Negro 41%
The model gave 59% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapayk
42% · 72 games52% · 182 games
LifestealerWits
Lifestealer
Slardar
SlardarVitaly
48% · 113 games53% · 336 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyPiPi
51% · 286 games52% · 358 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixYadomi
47% · 203 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
50% · 202 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 69%
Series resultPerro Negro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3