ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80loss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 28 games
Snapfire
Elmisho · 20 games
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 19 games
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Elmisho · 17 games
Heroic
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 16 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 16 games
Lionsignature
Scofield · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 15 games
Muerta
Scofield · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
478 picks · 397 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 555 bans
Batrider
408 picks · 510 bans
Lion
402 picks · 212 bans
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 652 bans
Phoenix
390 picks · 436 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 586 bans
Beastmaster
353 picks · 899 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction correct16:32
M80 34%Heroic 66%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaK1
TimbersawWisper
Earth SpiritDarkMago
BristlebackYuma
BeastmasterILICH-
Earthshaker4nalog
Nyx AssassinElmisho
ChenKJ
PugnaMoOz
MuertaScofield
Game 3prediction correct26:45
M80 35%Heroic 65%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 49:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorK1
Naga SirenYuma
LycanILICH-
Earthshaker4nalog
MarsDarkMago
EnigmaWisper
Nyx AssassinElmisho
LionScofield
LichMoOz
GyrocopterKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 76%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2