ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LFLooking for Orgwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 20 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 17 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 17 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 13 games
Muertasignature
Michael · 12 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 10 games
Looking for Org
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 8 games
Earthshaker
PiPi · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
payk · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
476 picks · 397 bans
Clockwerk
442 picks · 552 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 509 bans
Lion
401 picks · 212 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 651 bans
Phoenix
388 picks · 434 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
352 picks · 895 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Looking for Org
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:30
Fusion 56%Looking for Org 44%
The model gave 56% on Fusion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 53:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendMnz
Morphlingpayk
BristlebackFrank
PuckPiPi
Void SpiritLeostyle
DoomVitaly
MuertaMichael
BatriderMatthew
TuskPrada
ClockwerkYadomi
Game 2prediction missed31:42
Fusion 53%Looking for Org 47%
The model gave 53% on Fusion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 1:06:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMnz
Gyrocopterpayk
Dragon KnightLeostyle
PuckPiPi
UnderlordFrank
TidehunterVitaly
MuertaMichael
Ogre MagiYadomi
PhoenixPrada
LionMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 61%
Series resultLooking for Org 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2