The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sadboysloss 0:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Selva Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sadboys
Ember Spiritoften banned
555k · 1 game
Tiny
555k · 1 game
Selva Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
634 picks · 431 bans
Rubick
549 picks · 307 bans
Phoenix
492 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 401 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 638 bans
Puck
357 picks · 1017 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 537 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Selva Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Selva Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Sadboys 45%Selva Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Selva Esports — the game was taken by Selva Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteSelva Esports · 55%
Series resultSelva Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1