European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Hryvnialoss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
Beastmasteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
paw · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
MOUZ
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 24 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 23 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 21 game
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
478 picks · 397 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 553 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 509 bans
Lion
401 picks · 212 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 652 bans
Phoenix
390 picks · 434 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
353 picks · 895 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
Team Hryvnia 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokermellojul
LinaSupream^
EnigmaStoneBank
Templar AssassinLowskill
30% · 19 games
VisageForce
50% · 94 games
Shadow DemonFly
47% · 85 games
Tuskxsvampire
Game 2prediction correct7:39
Team Hryvnia 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckmellojul
BristlebackLowskill
TinyStoneBank
Storm SpiritSupream^
50% · 102 games
BrewmasterForce
46% · 139 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
46% · 169 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 84%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2