ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Perro Negrowin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HDHombre de Negroloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perro Negro
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Hombre de Negro
Clockwerkoften banned
FeelinG · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
Jakiro
FeelinG · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Benjimon · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
476 picks · 395 bans
Clockwerk
442 picks · 551 bans
Batrider
402 picks · 508 bans
Lion
399 picks · 210 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 646 bans
Phoenix
389 picks · 431 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 583 bans
Beastmaster
351 picks · 892 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Hombre de Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Perro Negro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Perro Negro 57%Hombre de Negro 43%
The model gave 57% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaWits
Queen of PainBenjimon
TidehunterOscar
BeastmasterSatoshi-
EnchantressMjz
Ogre MagiFeelinG
Game 2prediction correct26:5
Perro Negro 57%Hombre de Negro 43%
The model gave 57% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 19:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingWits
TerrorbladeSatoshi-
BrewmasterOscar
Ember SpiritBenjimon
DisruptorMjz
ClockwerkFeelinG
Model check result
Model favoritePerro Negro · 65%
Series resultPerro Negro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2