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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 25 games
68%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 17 games
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 13 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 12 games
75%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 12 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 11 games
18%
Lion
Lion
lupsione · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 394 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 552 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 507 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 210 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 642 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
386 picks · 431 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 580 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
349 picks · 893 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:15
1w Team 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMunkushi~
50% · 249 games46% · 76 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Magnus
MagnusCloud
51% · 155 games46% · 286 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
56% · 256 games49% · 234 games
Dawnbreakerlaise
Dawnbreaker
Lion
Lionswedenstrong
54% · 182 games44% · 373 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
51% · 296 games52% · 169 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed13:25
1w Team 53%9Pandas 47%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMunkushi~
42% · 266 games53% · 304 games
LunaV-Tune
Luna
Broodmother
BroodmotherChira JUNIOR
42% · 58 games49% · 322 games
Puckerase
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCloud
58% · 178 games50% · 81 game
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
48% · 335 games49% · 68 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
51% · 245 games56% · 307 games
Lionlupsione
Lion
Game 3prediction missed18:35
1w Team 55%9Pandas 45%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
54% · 115 games56% · 49 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Sniper
SniperChira JUNIOR
47% · 86 games56% · 27 games
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Visage
VisageCloud
39% · 26 games54% · 120 games
Invokererase
Invoker
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
46% · 55 games49% · 135 games
Lionlupsione
Lion
Lich
LichFishman
49% · 71 game38% · 22 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3