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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The MongolZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Kukuys

Marci
Marci
Palos · 7 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Yowe · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
33%

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 6 games
17%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JG · 5 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 394 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 550 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 505 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 209 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 641 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
384 picks · 431 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 580 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
350 picks · 890 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:40
Team Kukuys 56%The MongolZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAbat
56% · 85 games49% · 85 games
Earth SpiritBob
Earth Spirit
Lina
LinaArmel
55% · 81 game42% · 204 games
PangolierJG
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixPonyo
53% · 181 game45% · 58 games
Nyx AssassinHishge
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct24:22
Team Kukuys 54%The MongolZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAbat
44% · 178 games50% · 165 games
DoomJG
Doom
Lina
LinaArmel
44% · 98 games51% · 88 games
Earth SpiritBob
Earth Spirit
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPonyo
57% · 100 games53% · 123 games
Dark WillowHishge
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct28:23
Team Kukuys 56%The MongolZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainArmel
38% · 64 games58% · 97 games
BristlebackJG
Bristleback
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAbat
57% · 107 games44% · 92 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressPonyo
54% · 224 games49% · 206 games
HoodwinkHishge
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 58%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3