European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Türkiyewin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Türkiye
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 12 games
Lich
Stoic · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 11 games
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Jeezy · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Stoic · 7 games
Disruptor
Stoic · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 21 game
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 20 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 20 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 18 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 16 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 15 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
475 picks · 392 bans
Clockwerk
439 picks · 549 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 503 bans
Lion
392 picks · 208 bans
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 636 bans
Phoenix
382 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 579 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 889 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total73% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed54:26
Team Türkiye 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawG.T.I
InvokerStojkov
TuskStoic
SpectreDaaD-
53% · 83 games
Sand KingNefrit
47% · 48 games
GrimstrokePablo
53% · 50 games
LichLeBronDota
Game 2prediction missed37:21
Team Türkiye 40%Zero Tenacity 60%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Türkiye in 46:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastG.T.I
MorphlingDaaD-
ClockwerkStoic
LinaStojkov
49% · 100 games
Sand KingNefrit
53% · 116 games
LionPablo
28% · 9 games
AbaddonLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 73%
Series resultTeam Türkiye 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2