ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Groomifyloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
InterActive Philippineswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Groomify
Bane
Teehee · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Karma丶 · 1 game
Lion
PlayHard · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Karma丶 · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
PlayHard · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
InterActive Philippines
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
476 picks · 389 bans
Clockwerk
439 picks · 548 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 502 bans
Lion
391 picks · 205 bans
Gyrocopter
389 picks · 632 bans
Phoenix
378 picks · 428 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 581 bans
Beastmaster
348 picks · 885 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% InterActive Philippines
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:19
Groomify 36%InterActive Philippines 64%
The model gave 64% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by Groomify in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYoungGodLevi
Nature's ProphetNishababy
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
Game 2prediction correct21:40
Groomify 40%InterActive Philippines 60%
The model gave 60% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
LinaNishababy
TinyPlayHard
Game 3prediction correct19:32
Groomify 43%InterActive Philippines 57%
The model gave 57% on InterActive Philippines — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 24:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYoungGodLevi
InvokerNishababy
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
Model check result
Model favoriteInterActive Philippines · 70%
Series resultInterActive Philippines 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3