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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kukuyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Marci
Marci
Tino- · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
46%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shanks · 8 games
38%

Team Kukuys

Marci
Marci
Palos · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 389 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
439 picks · 548 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 502 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
391 picks · 205 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
389 picks · 632 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
378 picks · 428 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 581 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
348 picks · 885 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:4
Execration 58%Team Kukuys 42%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAkashi
47% · 139 games58% · 191 game
TinyAbat
Tiny
Tidehunter
TidehunterTino-
48% · 54 games56% · 66 games
InvokerArmel
Invoker
Lina
LinaShanks
44% · 102 games46% · 126 games
PhoenixPonyo
Phoenix
Lich
Lichcml
49% · 88 games
Game 2prediction missed20:29
Execration 59%Team Kukuys 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusAkashi
50% · 81 game53% · 96 games
BristlebackAbat
Bristleback
Doom
DoomTino-
47% · 135 games43% · 55 games
Queen of PainArmel
Queen of Pain
Zeus
ZeusShanks
39% · 37 games53% · 174 games
EnchantressPonyo
Enchantress
Chen
Chencml
62% · 72 games
Game 3prediction missed14:30
Execration 56%Team Kukuys 44%
The model gave 56% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAkashi
60% · 11 games51% · 130 games
AlchemistAbat
Alchemist
Magnus
MagnusTino-
55% · 106 games46% · 116 games
Earth SpiritArmel
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixcml
44% · 167 games51% · 256 games
Shadow DemonPonyo
Shadow Demon
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShanks
49% · 218 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 65%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3