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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80win 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infamousloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

M80

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 27 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 20 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 19 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 17 games
35%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Elmisho · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 16 games
31%

Infamous

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
S1RENM · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
S1RENM · 4 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 4 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
DM · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
475 picks · 387 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 502 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
391 picks · 204 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
389 picks · 629 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
377 picks · 425 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 580 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
346 picks · 883 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Infamous
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
M80 63%Infamous 37%
The model gave 63% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenK1
53% · 93 games45% · 192 games
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerDarkMago
45% · 68 games46% · 169 games
TerrorbladeHermit
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomILICH-
50% · 187 games49% · 121 game
UrsaDM
Ursa
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
54% · 218 games56% · 352 games
BatriderJimmyCoff666
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
53% · 268 games
Game 2prediction missed15:26
M80 64%Infamous 36%
The model gave 64% on M80 — the game was taken by Infamous in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
48% · 123 games44% · 93 games
Queen of PainS1RENM
Queen of Pain
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerILICH-
49% · 104 games52% · 73 games
LifestealerDM
Lifestealer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerDarkMago
47% · 37 games49% · 270 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
49% · 116 games58% · 156 games
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
Ogre Magi
Clockwerk
ClockwerkElmisho
52% · 212 games
Game 3prediction correct37:22
M80 63%Infamous 37%
The model gave 63% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenK1
47% · 75 games55% · 174 games
DawnbreakerDM
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterILICH-
41% · 174 games48% · 63 games
Night StalkerHermit
Night Stalker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritDarkMago
48% · 100 games50% · 432 games
TinyS1RENM
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
45% · 264 games58% · 163 games
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
Disruptor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMoOz
53% · 219 games
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 74%
Series resultM80 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3