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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 26 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 21 game
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 18 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 16 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 14 games
57%

Virtus.pro

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Rein · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 12 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 12 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 10 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
471 picks · 386 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 548 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 497 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
387 picks · 203 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
385 picks · 625 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
375 picks · 423 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 582 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
343 picks · 879 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:40
One Move 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWoE
47% · 150 games44% · 268 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusSSS
53% · 218 games48% · 213 games
InvokerSquad1x
Invoker
Tiny
TinyDifference
55% · 410 games47% · 29 games
AxeNoticed
Axe
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionso bad
60% · 26 games45% · 369 games
Batriderprblms
Batrider
Lion
Lionnot me
56% · 289 games50% · 214 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed24:18
One Move 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by One Move in 44:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightWoE
53% · 83 games47% · 232 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Lina
LinaDifference
47% · 154 games56% · 100 games
SniperSquad1x
Sniper
Bristleback
BristlebackSSS
55% · 204 games51% · 224 games
Primal BeastNoticed
Primal Beast
Enchantress
Enchantressso bad
46% · 342 games44% · 264 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Marci
Marcinot me
49% · 197 games53% · 160 games
Lionprblms
Lion
Game 3prediction missed31:25
One Move 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by One Move in 50:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWoE
49% · 289 games53% · 251 game
Templar AssassinNande
Templar Assassin
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
50% · 44 games51% · 219 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
46% · 349 games46% · 110 games
BroodmotherNoticed
Broodmother
Batrider
Batridernot me
48% · 267 games51% · 464 games
Shadow Demonprblms
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
Enchantressso bad
47% · 249 games59% · 154 games
Ogre MagiRein
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3