European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 21 game
Dark Willow
jAMES · 20 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 18 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 16 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 15 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 13 games
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 13 games
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Lion
Delight · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Rubick
jAMES · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
470 picks · 384 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 548 bans
Batrider
389 picks · 495 bans
Gyrocopter
381 picks · 615 bans
Lion
381 picks · 203 bans
Phoenix
369 picks · 416 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 585 bans
Beastmaster
342 picks · 873 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:16
Zero Tenacity 62%Winter Bear 38%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerDaaD-
Dark WillowDelight
InvokerStojkov
Primal BeastNefrit
Nyx AssassinPablo
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct52:24
Zero Tenacity 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 47:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenDaaD-
Nyx AssassinDelight
TerrorbladeNefrit
Monkey KingStojkov
ClockwerkPablo
PhoenixLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 67%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2