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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 16 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 15 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 12 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Abed · 12 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 11 games
82%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kuku · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
79%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 19 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
470 picks · 384 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
427 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 492 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
380 picks · 612 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 203 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
367 picks · 416 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 584 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
342 picks · 869 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total54% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:43
Aurora Gaming 45%Talon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:05:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAbed
44% · 126 games55% · 210 games
Monkey KingMikoto
Monkey King
Spectre
SpectrePalos
51% · 38 games50% · 71 game
BroodmotherWs
Broodmother
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
46% · 445 games56% · 416 games
TinyNatsumi
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
49% · 314 games53% · 132 games
SniperKuku
Sniper
Lion
LionQ
51% · 258 games48% · 352 games
ClockwerkJhocam
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct18:28
Aurora Gaming 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 55:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperAbed
52% · 126 games53% · 283 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Magnus
MagnusPalos
52% · 251 game50% · 311 games
TinyMikoto
Tiny
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
53% · 306 games52% · 121 game
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQ
48% · 64 games53% · 160 games
PugnaKuku
Pugna
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
42% · 350 games45% · 222 games
Dark WillowJhocam
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 54%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2