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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The MongolZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 22 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
76%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 18 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 16 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Wonder'boy · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 6 games
17%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JG · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
470 picks · 384 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
427 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 492 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
380 picks · 612 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 203 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
367 picks · 416 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 584 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
342 picks · 869 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
BOOM Esports 74%The MongolZ 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistJaCkky
49% · 138 games47% · 184 games
Primal BeastJG
Primal Beast
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
52% · 48 games51% · 238 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaFbz
51% · 73 games51% · 274 games
LionHishge
Lion
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTims
49% · 206 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJaunuel
51% · 231 game
Game 2prediction correct24:9
BOOM Esports 76%The MongolZ 24%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
54% · 74 games54% · 333 games
TinyBob
Tiny
Lina
LinaMac
49% · 79 games45% · 134 games
DawnbreakerJG
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaFbz
54% · 88 games44% · 170 games
SnapfireHishge
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTims
51% · 228 games
Lion
LionJaunuel
53% · 168 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 85%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2