European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Hryvniawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 10 games
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 5 games
Dark Willow
Somnia · 5 games
Team Hryvnia
Beastmasteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
paw · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
467 picks · 383 bans
Clockwerk
425 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
387 picks · 489 bans
Gyrocopter
377 picks · 609 bans
Lion
377 picks · 201 bans
Phoenix
366 picks · 415 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
342 picks · 867 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 22%
Hero pool strength50% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Quantum Team 53%Team Hryvnia 47%
The model gave 53% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 52:49.
Game 2prediction correct18:38
Quantum Team 49%Team Hryvnia 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerRvze
GyrocopterShigetsu
Phantom Assassinbashka
TimbersawStoneBank
DawnbreakerAnkou
Ember Spiritmellojul
Dark Willowkolya_kaBAN68
Shadow ShamanFezor
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 53%
Series resultTeam Hryvnia 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2