ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionMMiranawin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FCFlow Crewloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mirana
No games played over 6 months.
Flow Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
467 picks · 382 bans
Clockwerk
426 picks · 542 bans
Batrider
385 picks · 488 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 606 bans
Lion
373 picks · 200 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 411 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
342 picks · 864 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Mirana
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Flow Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:27
Mirana 47%Flow Crew 53%
The model gave 53% on Flow Crew — the game was taken by Mirana in 46:39.
Game 2prediction missed12:24
Mirana 47%Flow Crew 53%
The model gave 53% on Flow Crew — the game was taken by Mirana in 33:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlow Crew · 53%
Series resultMirana 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2