PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 2:3series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:3
LFLooking for Orgwin 3:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 16 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 14 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 12 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 10 games
Muertasignature
Michael · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 9 games
Looking for Org
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Matthew · 3 games
Earthshaker
PiPi · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
465 picks · 377 bans
Clockwerk
420 picks · 539 bans
Batrider
381 picks · 484 bans
Lion
372 picks · 199 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 598 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 406 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
342 picks · 857 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Fusion
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
Fusion 59%Looking for Org 41%
The model gave 59% on Fusion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMnz
Morphlingpayk
TinyLeostyle
LycanVitaly
EnigmaFrank
TimbersawPiPi
BatriderPrada
GyrocopterYadomi
ClockwerkMichael
LionMatthew
Game 2prediction correct33:27
Fusion 59%Looking for Org 41%
The model gave 59% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 58:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMnz
Templar Assassinpayk
PuckLeostyle
EarthshakerPiPi
UnderlordFrank
Night StalkerVitaly
ClockwerkPrada
BatriderMatthew
MuertaMichael
WarlockYadomi
Game 3prediction missed18:37
Fusion 59%Looking for Org 41%
The model gave 59% on Fusion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperLeostyle
BristlebackVitaly
GyrocopterMnz
SniperPiPi
DawnbreakerFrank
Earthshakerpayk
DoomMichael
MuertaMatthew
ClockwerkPrada
Ogre MagiYadomi
Game 4prediction correct25:7
Fusion 60%Looking for Org 40%
The model gave 60% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMnz
Terrorbladepayk
Shadow FiendLeostyle
EarthshakerPiPi
DoomFrank
Night StalkerVitaly
ClockwerkMichael
WarlockYadomi
Ogre MagiPrada
BatriderMatthew
Game 5prediction missed11:25
Fusion 58%Looking for Org 42%
The model gave 58% on Fusion — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 50:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMnz
Gyrocopterpayk
PangolierLeostyle
LycanVitaly
DoomFrank
EarthshakerPiPi
BatriderPrada
PugnaMatthew
Dark WillowMichael
ClockwerkYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 66%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5