PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLFLooking for Orgwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
M80loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Looking for Org
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Matthew · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
Dark Willow
Yadomi · 2 games
Earthshaker
PiPi · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 2 games
Lich
Yadomi · 2 games
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 25 games
Snapfire
Elmisho · 20 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 17 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
Tuskoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
464 picks · 375 bans
Clockwerk
422 picks · 538 bans
Batrider
380 picks · 485 bans
Lion
374 picks · 198 bans
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 597 bans
Phoenix
364 picks · 405 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 583 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 858 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:10
Looking for Org 43%M80 57%
The model gave 57% on M80 — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterpayk
AbaddonK1
BeastmasterVitaly
Dragon KnightDarkMago
EarthshakerPiPi
Night StalkerILICH-
BatriderMatthew
WarlockMoOz
ClockwerkYadomi
MuertaElmisho
Game 2prediction missed37:14
Looking for Org 41%M80 59%
The model gave 59% on M80 — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinpayk
Troll WarlordK1
Ember SpiritPiPi
PangolierDarkMago
TidehunterVitaly
MagnusILICH-
PhoenixYadomi
BatriderElmisho
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Shadow DemonMoOz
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 67%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2