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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 20 games
75%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 17 games
41%

Ban9PivoSamogon

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
463 picks · 375 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
422 picks · 539 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
377 picks · 485 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 198 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 594 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
363 picks · 404 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 584 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
340 picks · 859 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:39
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Ban9PivoSamogon 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 46:22.
Game 2prediction correct24:34
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Ban9PivoSamogon 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 46:08.
Game 3prediction missed26:37
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Ban9PivoSamogon 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 54:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 71%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3