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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 21 game
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
72%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
V-Tune · 13 games
69%
Ursa
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 11 games
27%
Rubick
Rubick
JANTER · 11 games
36%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Kami · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
462 picks · 373 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 540 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
378 picks · 484 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 197 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
365 picks · 591 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 402 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 584 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
340 picks · 857 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:32
MOUZ 49%Night Pulse 51%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingLowskill
49% · 40 games48% · 310 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
48% · 541 game48% · 260 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackForce
53% · 168 games49% · 335 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Chen
ChenFly
56% · 164 games44% · 310 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
52% · 426 games52% · 124 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct22:33
MOUZ 45%Night Pulse 55%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 36:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerLowskill
43% · 3 games43% · 58 games
Phantom AssassinKami
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
54% · 117 games55% · 152 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Mars
MarsForce
51% · 115 games57% · 178 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
45% · 166 games54% · 111 games
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterxsvampire
42% · 200 games49% · 102 games
LichKidaro
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 56%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2