PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMmotisloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
M80win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
motis
No games played over 6 months.
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 24 games
Snapfire
Elmisho · 20 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 16 games
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
Tuskoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
457 picks · 372 bans
Clockwerk
424 picks · 540 bans
Batrider
378 picks · 479 bans
Lion
374 picks · 194 bans
Gyrocopter
361 picks · 587 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 397 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 585 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% motis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:39
motis 24%M80 76%
The model gave 76% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 49:14.
Game 2prediction correct55:57
motis 24%M80 76%
The model gave 76% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 1:13:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 76%
Series resultM80 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2