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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Y5 Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 11 games
27%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 10 games
30%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
forcemajor · 7 games
29%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
43%
Sven
Sven
Lowskill · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%

Y5 Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
453 picks · 371 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
422 picks · 540 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
375 picks · 476 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
370 picks · 195 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 583 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
359 picks · 395 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 586 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
341 picks · 848 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Y5 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:28
Nemiga Gaming 59%Y5 Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Y5 Esports in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
60% · 6 games48% · 68 games
TidehunterDominic
Tidehunter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCovisnine
42% · 8 games
Tiny
Tinyспортик
59% · 35 games
Muerta
MuertaShishak
50% · 12 games
Lich
Lichmonodrama
45% · 7 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultY5 Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1