ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
HHabibisloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
Habibis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
453 picks · 370 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 542 bans
Batrider
374 picks · 474 bans
Lion
370 picks · 194 bans
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 581 bans
Phoenix
358 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 586 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 85%Habibis 15%
The model gave 85% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 85%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1