ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 0:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Y5 Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
Dark Willow
Somnia · 4 games
Y5 Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
453 picks · 370 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 542 bans
Batrider
374 picks · 474 bans
Lion
370 picks · 194 bans
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 581 bans
Phoenix
358 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 586 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:35
Quantum Team 57%Y5 Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Y5 Esports in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingbashka
BeastmasterDominic
TidehunterAnkou
TinyRvze
BatriderFezor
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 67%
Series resultY5 Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1