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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
43%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 20 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 20 games
75%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
453 picks · 370 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 542 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
374 picks · 474 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
369 picks · 193 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 579 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
356 picks · 394 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 585 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
339 picks · 848 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:18
Natus Vincere 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
49% · 135 games68% · 44 games
Lycanpma
Lycan
Tiny
TinyBOOM
49% · 377 games46% · 222 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingSancity
57% · 132 games46% · 240 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
52% · 303 games47% · 352 games
PhoenixZayac
Phoenix
Lion
LionQBFY
50% · 238 games46% · 327 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed28:7
Natus Vincere 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinShad
43% · 48 games44% · 95 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Tiny
TinySancity
55% · 315 games58% · 189 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackBOOM
52% · 136 games48% · 209 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
46% · 223 games46% · 237 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanQBFY
53% · 33 games57% · 25 games
Bounty HunterZayac
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2