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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 19 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 19 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 16 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 15 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Alberkaaa · 13 games
62%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Munkushi~ · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 369 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 545 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 475 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 192 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 575 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
355 picks · 392 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 587 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
340 picks · 850 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
HULIGANI 39%1w Team 61%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenv1olent-
46% · 92 games54% · 65 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
45% · 229 games54% · 194 games
BristlebackMunkushi~
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyMirage
43% · 300 games49% · 556 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
44% · 318 games55% · 167 games
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRESPECT
51% · 252 games60% · 209 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed42:41
HULIGANI 40%1w Team 60%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:01:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
53% · 31 game54% · 78 games
SlarkMunkushi~
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
48% · 120 games53% · 171 game
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusAlberkaaa
52% · 149 games45% · 132 games
DawnbreakerCloud
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
48% · 237 games51% · 29 games
WarlockFishman
Warlock
Chen
ChenRESPECT
59% · 92 games41% · 219 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed27:30
HULIGANI 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 54:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMirage
51% · 134 games42% · 193 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
41% · 27 games47% · 148 games
BristlebackCloud
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyAlberkaaa
46% · 228 games51% · 120 games
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
Earth Spirit
Chen
ChenRESPECT
60% · 86 games50% · 99 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Batrider
Batriderqueezy
48% · 240 games58% · 155 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3