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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 19 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 17 games
53%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 16 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 15 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%

MOUZ

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 21 game
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
bengan · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 369 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
422 picks · 545 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 475 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 192 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
360 picks · 573 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 585 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
353 picks · 392 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
340 picks · 850 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total59% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:18
Zero Tenacity 45%MOUZ 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDaaD-
47% · 26 games43% · 152 games
Templar AssassinLowskill
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
56% · 205 games50% · 210 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
54% · 256 games51% · 166 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPablo
55% · 140 games46% · 114 games
PugnaFly
Pugna
Phoenix
PhoenixLeBronDota
49% · 297 games44% · 282 games
Clockwerkxsvampire
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed37:16
Zero Tenacity 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDaaD-
54% · 47 games52% · 121 game
LifestealerLowskill
Lifestealer
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
47% · 165 games54% · 184 games
BristlebackForce
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
46% · 176 games52% · 182 games
Earth SpiritSupream^
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixLeBronDota
43% · 245 games50% · 243 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPablo
49% · 232 games55% · 135 games
Ogre MagiFly
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 59%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2