PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Titanloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 17 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 15 games
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 13 games
Medusasignature
flyfly · 12 games
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
445 picks · 365 bans
Clockwerk
414 picks · 552 bans
Batrider
370 picks · 471 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 566 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 588 bans
Phoenix
350 picks · 382 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total81% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:60
Yakult Brothers 81%Titan 19%
The model gave 81% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Titan in 1:15:13.
Game 2prediction correct24:13
Yakult Brothers 81%Titan 19%
The model gave 81% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 42:36.
Game 3prediction correct46:31
Yakult Brothers 81%Titan 19%
The model gave 81% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 50:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 81%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3