PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
InterActive Philippines
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Yangon Galacticos
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
445 picks · 365 bans
Clockwerk
414 picks · 551 bans
Batrider
370 picks · 470 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 564 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 588 bans
Phoenix
350 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:29
InterActive Philippines 38%Yangon Galacticos 62%
The model gave 62% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusNishababy
LifestealerKsh
44% · 30 games
LinaYoung PH
Game 2prediction correct27:44
InterActive Philippines 41%Yangon Galacticos 59%
The model gave 59% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 56:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNishababy
Earth SpiritYoung PH
52% · 19 games
TerrorbladeKsh
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 71%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2