ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yoru Ryodanloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Sadboyswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yoru Ryodan
Lion
Ezekiel · 2 games
Grimstroke
Ezekiel · 1 game
Iooften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Sadboys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
445 picks · 363 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 550 bans
Batrider
369 picks · 470 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 563 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 588 bans
Phoenix
349 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Sadboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Yoru Ryodan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Yoru Ryodan 54%Sadboys 46%
The model gave 54% on Yoru Ryodan — the game was taken by Sadboys.
Model check result
Model favoriteYoru Ryodan · 54%
Series resultSadboys 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1